14,000 Unsold Condos: We Built for Investors. The Market Wants Homes.

Nov 4, 2026 · @Brad Gannon

By Brad & Theo Gannon

Metro Vancouver doesn't have too many homes. It has too many of the wrong ones.

This week's headline — more than 14,000 new condos unsold across the region — is being read as proof the market is oversupplied. We see it differently. Much of what sits unsold was designed for a buyer who has left the market: the investor who bought a small one-bedroom on paper, planned to flip the contract or rent it out, and never intended to live there.

The buyers still standing are the ones who were always going to stay: young families who need a real second bedroom and storage, and empty nesters selling the family home who want space, quiet and a layout that works for the next 20 years. They're not ignoring new condos because they don't want condos. They're ignoring them because too few were built for them.

That mismatch has a second consequence that isn't getting enough attention: a growing share of those small, investor-style units is landing in the rental market at the same moment a record wave of purpose-built rentals completes. For condo landlords, especially in the suburbs, that is a serious squeeze. Here's how we read both.

The 14,000, briefly

Rennie's Fall 2026 report counted more than 14,000 unsold new condos at the end of June 2026, across every build stage. About 56% — nearly 8,000 — are still under construction, roughly twice the number already finished. Only 15% are in projects that haven't broken ground.

Demand is the weak side of the equation: just 1,340 new condos sold region-wide in the first half of 2026, a record low. CMHC separately counted 4,376 completed, unabsorbed condo apartments in Metro Vancouver in May 2026, up 76% in a year (MPA).

Wrong product, wrong place

For most of the last cycle, new condos in Metro Vancouver were designed around the presale investor. That buyer wanted the lowest entry price, so projects maximized unit count: studios, compact one-bedrooms, "two-bedroom" plans with a second room barely big enough for a bed. The math worked as long as values kept rising and contracts could be flipped before completion.

That model broke when rates rose and investors left. The evidence that the product itself is the problem shows up in the rental market, where nobody is speculating:

• Small suburban units are struggling. CMHC's 2025 Rental Market Report found that in some suburban centres, heavy concentrations of studio and one-bedroom units have limited appeal, and expects elevated vacancy there to persist (Daily Hive).

• Family-sized units are holding. In Rentals.ca's May 2026 report, studio condo rents fell 7.9% year over year — the steepest drop of any unit type — while three-bedroom purpose-built rents slipped just 1.1% (Rentals.ca).

• Families are still squeezed. The same CMHC report found that households looking for two bedrooms or more face the tightest conditions in the region.

The unsold inventory has been concentrated in suburban towers in places like Burnaby, Coquitlam and parts of Surrey (Radio-Canada) — exactly the markets where small-unit oversupply is showing up in rents.

The fair counterpoint. Not everyone agrees size is the main issue. A Century Group executive recently pointed to Real Property Data showing that more than 40% of unsold concrete inventory is two-bedroom homes, arguing price matters more than square footage (Daily Hive). Price is clearly part of it. But in our experience, a two-bedroom label doesn't make a home family-sized or downsizer-friendly — layout, storage and real bedroom dimensions do. A compact two-bedroom priced near $1 million competes with an older, larger resale unit, and the resale unit usually wins.

Where the real demand is

The demand hasn't disappeared — it's waiting for the right product. Rennie's Homes of Tomorrow survey found 35% of Metro Vancouver respondents intend to buy a home within three years, equal to nearly 380,000 households (Rennie). As reported, the same research found most end-user buyers would prefer a townhome, with the three-bedroom family home as the "sweet spot" (summary).

After 700+ transactions, here is what we hear from the two groups who make up most of our clients:

Young families moving up want a second and third bedroom that each fit a real bed and a dresser, a layout that separates kids from parents, in-suite storage for strollers and bikes, and a building near schools and parks rather than a highway interchange.

Empty nesters and downsizers want single-level living with room for the dining table and furniture they already own, a den or second bedroom for visiting family, generous storage and a large locker, two parking stalls in many cases, good soundproofing, and walkable shops and services.

Theodora, a 22-year industry veteran who works with many retired couples looking to downsize, sees this every week:

"It's been a little depressing for many empty nesters and retirees over the past decade, trying to find a suitable apartment or condo to go to if they have been living in a detached home. There really has been little built to address the housing needs of this demographic. It shouldn't be assumed they want to just move out of the city to the Okanagan or elsewhere. I really hope there can be more 1,200-plus-square-foot condos built that can make the transition for these buyers more feasible."

When those buyers walk through a typical investor-era tower in the suburbs, they rarely find either. So they keep renting, stay in the family house, or buy an older, larger resale unit instead.

What we hope developers build next

The pause is an opportunity. Rennie reports no concrete condo tower presale launches in Metro Vancouver so far in 2026, and many ready-to-sell projects are on hold (Daily Hive). Projects that haven't launched can still be redesigned. Our wish list:

1. Shift the unit mix toward end users. Fewer studios and micro one-bedrooms; more true two- and three-bedroom homes, especially in suburban town centres where families actually live.

2. Design for downsizers on purpose. Larger single-level plans, real storage, wider halls and doorways, and parking that matches how people in Coquitlam, Richmond and Surrey actually get around.

3. Build ground-oriented options inside towers. Townhome-style units on podium levels give families a front door and outdoor space in a dense building.

4. Sell to people who will live there. Presale structures that reward owner-occupiers — not quick assignment flips — build stronger stratas and steadier buildings.

We know the counterargument: bigger units cost more to build per door, and land, financing and municipal charges make larger homes hard to pencil. That's real. But the alternative is building more of what isn't selling. Cities can help by making it easier to approve family-sized units, and developers can help by pricing them for local incomes rather than investor yields.

IMetro Vancouver in 2025, 48% above the prior record (Rennie). MLA Canada counted 1,001 more in September 2026 alone, and the wave is expected to run through 2027 (Daily Hive).

1. Unsold condos turning into rentals. CMHC's mid-year update says new condos that can't find buyers are increasingly landing in the rental pool (liv.rent), and some in-progress condo projects are being switched to purpose-built rental to avoid holding costs (CMHC).

2. The 8,000 still under construction. Every one of those unsold units that completes without a buyer is a likely rental listing.

3. Short-term rentals returning. B.C. says active short-term listings fell from about 28,000 to just over 23,000 after its restrictions, pushing units back into long-term rental (liv.rent).

s the rental market about to flood?

It's already filling fast. Metro Vancouver's purpose-built vacancy rate hit 3.7% in 2025, a full point above the previous record, and asking rents have fallen year over year for 30 straight months, to about one-fifth below their September 2023 peak (Rennie; liv.rent).

New rental supply is arriving from four directions at once:

1. Record purpose-built completions. Nearly 11,000 purpose-built rentals completed in Demand moved the other way. B.C.'s population shrank in 2025 as non-permanent residents left, and Rennie notes those departing were overwhelmingly renters.

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The declines are steepest in exactly the suburban markets where small-unit towers are concentrated. CMHC also reports landlords are offering incentives such as move-in credits, free parking and in some cases several months of free rent.

The landlord squeeze, in numbers

A typical new suburban one-bedroom bought with 20% down today runs about $1,300 a month short of covering its costs. This is an illustration, not a real property — every number below is an assumption you should replace with your own.

Rent figure from liv.rent's August 2026 report; mortgage is our calculation with Canadian semi-annual compounding.

One honest caveat. About $1,000 of that mortgage payment is principal in year one, so part of the shortfall is building equity rather than disappearing. But that's cold comfort when values are also falling: Rennie forecast a further 4% condo price decline in 2026 (Rennie). A landlord who bought a presale at the 2022 peak, closed at today's values, and is now renewing at a higher rate after the Bank of Canada's October 28 hike is squeezed from every side.

Tailspin, or a split market?

Our honest read: a tailspin is a real risk for one segment of landlords — not for rental property as a whole.

How the tailspin would work. Negative cash flow forces leveraged owners to cut rents to stay leased. That's already happening: individual condo owners kept vacancy at 1.5% in 2025, versus 3.7% for purpose-built buildings, largely because they can't afford an empty month (Daily Hive). Lower rents mean lower investor values, more owners decide to sell, more listings push prices down further, and presale buyers closing into that market face bigger appraisal gaps.

Who is most exposed. Owners of studios and small one-bedrooms in suburban towers, bought near the 2022 peak, with high leverage and a mortgage renewing in the next 12–24 months. They compete directly with brand-new rental towers offering free months and amenities.

Why we don't think it spreads to everyone.

• The supply wave has an end date. CMHC expects most of what's under construction to reach the market in the next 12–18 months, and warns that slowing condo starts could later shrink the flow of new rental competition (liv.rent).

• Rents may be finding a floor. Metro Vancouver one-bedroom asking rents rose 0.45% from July to August 2026, and the year-over-year decline narrowed from 6.4% to 4.9% (same source).

• No forced-selling wave yet. Total resale listings in Greater Vancouver were actually down 4.3% year over year in October 2026 (GVR).

• Family-sized rentals are holding up, as the three-bedroom numbers above show.

The same mismatch that left condos unsold is splitting the rental market. Units designed for people to live in long term are weathering this. Units designed for investors are taking the hit.

What it means for our clients

Moving up from a condo. Your sale competes with developer inventory, so price to today's resale comps. The purchase side is in your favour: the gap between the benchmark apartment and detached home in Greater Vancouver narrowed from $1,197,500 to $1,101,800 over the past year — about $95,700 (our calculation from GVR benchmarks). If your condo is a larger, well-laid-out unit, lead with that — it's exactly what end users can't find in new product.

Downsizing from a house. You're the buyer the market was built without, which gives you leverage. Look hard at larger older resale units alongside new ones, negotiate incentives on finished new product rather than buying on paper, and ask how many units the developer still owns before you buy into a building.

Owning rental property. Know which side of the split you're on. For a small suburban unit: stress-test your renewal at today's rates, price to the market rather than to last year's rent, and weigh the cost of a vacancy against keeping a reliable tenant. If the numbers only work on a rent recovery, it's worth a hold-or-sell conversation now rather than after renewal. For a family-sized unit in a good location, the outlook is steadier — focus on keeping good tenants.

This is general information, not financial advice — bring your numbers to your accountant and mortgage professional.

What we're watching

• Unit mix in the next launches. When concrete towers start selling again, does the plan book shift toward two- and three-bedroom homes? That's the signal developers have heard the market.

• CMHC's fall Rental Market Report. It will show whether 2026 vacancy rose above 3.7%, and by unit size.

• Purpose-built completions in MLA Canada's monthly reports, and whether more unsold condo projects convert to rental.

• The Bank of Canada on December 9, and what the new provincial government does on housing — including the federal-provincial condo conversion plan announced in June, whose future we haven't seen confirmed.

The bottom line

The 14,000 unsold condos aren't proof that Metro Vancouver built too much. They're proof that much of it was built for the wrong buyer. The families and empty nesters who make up real, lasting demand are still here — they just need homes designed for them. And until the rental wave passes, the owners of investor-style units will feel this most.

If you want to know where your home or rental property sits in this split market, call us. That's the conversation we have every day.