Nov 4, 2026 · @Brad Gannon

By Brad & Theo Gannon

Metro Vancouver doesn't have too many homes. It has too many of the wrong ones.

This week's headline — more than 14,000 new condos unsold across the region — is being read as proof the market is oversupplied. We see it differently. Much of what sits unsold was designed for a buyer who has left the market: the investor who bought a small one-bedroom on paper, planned to flip the contract or rent it out, and never intended to live there.

The buyers still standing are the ones who were always going to stay: young families who need a real second bedroom and storage, and empty nesters selling the family home who want space, quiet and a layout that works for the next 20 years. They're not ignoring new condos because they don't want condos. They're ignoring them because too few were built for them.

That mismatch has a second consequence that isn't getting enough attention: a growing share of those small, investor-style units is landing in the rental market at the same moment a record wave of purpose-built rentals completes. For condo landlords, especially in the suburbs, that is a serious squeeze. Here's how we read both.

The 14,000, briefly

Rennie's Fall 2026 report counted more than 14,000 unsold new condos at the end of June 2026, across every build stage. About 56% — nearly 8,000 — are still under construction, roughly twice the number already finished. Only 15% are in projects that haven't broken ground.

Demand is the weak side of the equation: just 1,340 new condos sold region-wide in the first half of 2026, a record low. CMHC separately counted 4,376 completed, unabsorbed condo apartments in Metro Vancouver in May 2026, up 76% in a year (MPA).

Wrong product, wrong place

For most of the last cycle, new condos in Metro Vancouver were designed around the presale investor. That buyer wanted the lowest entry price, so projects maximized unit count: studios, compact one-bedrooms, "two-bedroom" plans with a second room barely big enough for a bed. The math worked as long as values kept rising and contracts could be flipped before completion.

That model broke when rates rose and investors left. The evidence that the product itself is the problem shows up in the rental market, where nobody is speculating:

• Small suburban units are struggling. CMHC's 2025 Rental Market Report found that in some suburban centres, heavy concentrations of studio and one-bedroom units have limited appeal, and expects elevated vacancy there to persist (Daily Hive).

• Family-sized units are holding. In Rentals.ca's May 2026 report, studio condo rents fell 7.9% year over year — the steepest drop of any unit type — while three-bedroom purpose-built rents slipped just 1.1% (Rentals.ca).

• Families are still squeezed. The same CMHC report found that households looking for two bedrooms or more face the tightest conditions in the region.

The unsold inventory has been concentrated in suburban towers in places like Burnaby, Coquitlam and parts of Surrey (Radio-Canada) — exactly the markets where small-unit oversupply is showing up in rents.

The fair counterpoint. Not everyone agrees size is the main issue. A Century Group executive recently pointed to Real Property Data showing that more than 40% of unsold concrete inventory is two-bedroom homes, arguing price matters more than square footage (Daily Hive). Price is clearly part of it. But in our experience, a two-bedroom label doesn't make a home family-sized or downsizer-friendly — layout, storage and real bedroom dimensions do. A compact two-bedroom priced near $1 million competes with an older, larger resale unit, and the resale unit usually wins.

Where the real demand is

The demand hasn't disappeared — it's waiting for the right product. Rennie's Homes of Tomorrow survey found 35% of Metro Vancouver respondents intend to buy a home within three years, equal to nearly 380,000 households (Rennie). As reported, the same research found most end-user buyers would prefer a townhome, with the three-bedroom family home as the "sweet spot" (summary).

After 700+ transactions, here is what we hear from the two groups who make up most of our clients:

Young families moving up want a second and third bedroom that each fit a real bed and a dresser, a layout that separates kids from parents, in-suite storage for strollers and bikes, and a building near schools and parks rather than a highway interchange.

Empty nesters and downsizers want single-level living with room for the dining table and furniture they already own, a den or second bedroom for visiting family, generous storage and a large locker, two parking stalls in many cases, good soundproofing, and walkable shops and services.

Theodora, a 22-year industry veteran who works with many retired couples looking to downsize, sees this every week:

"It's been a little depressing for many empty nesters and retirees over the past decade, trying to find a suitable apartment or condo to go to if they have been living in a detached home. There really has been little built to address the housing needs of this demographic. It shouldn't be assumed they want to just move out of the city to the Okanagan or elsewhere. I really hope there can be more 1,200-plus-square-foot condos built that can make the transition for these buyers more feasible."

When those buyers walk through a typical investor-era tower in the suburbs, they rarely find either. So they keep renting, stay in the family house, or buy an older, larger resale unit instead.

What we hope developers build next

The pause is an opportunity. Rennie reports no concrete condo tower presale launches in Metro Vancouver so far in 2026, and many ready-to-sell projects are on hold (Daily Hive). Projects that haven't launched can still be redesigned. Our wish list:

1. Shift the unit mix toward end users. Fewer studios and micro one-bedrooms; more true two- and three-bedroom homes, especially in suburban town centres where families actually live.

2. Design for downsizers on purpose. Larger single-level plans, real storage, wider halls and doorways, and parking that matches how people in Coquitlam, Richmond and Surrey actually get around.

3. Build ground-oriented options inside towers. Townhome-style units on podium levels give families a front door and outdoor space in a dense building.

4. Sell to people who will live there. Presale structures that reward owner-occupiers — not quick assignment flips — build stronger stratas and steadier buildings.

We know the counterargument: bigger units cost more to build per door, and land, financing and municipal charges make larger homes hard to pencil. That's real. But the alternative is building more of what isn't selling. Cities can help by making it easier to approve family-sized units, and developers can help by pricing them for local incomes rather than investor yields.

IMetro Vancouver in 2025, 48% above the prior record (Rennie). MLA Canada counted 1,001 more in September 2026 alone, and the wave is expected to run through 2027 (Daily Hive).

1. Unsold condos turning into rentals. CMHC's mid-year update says new condos that can't find buyers are increasingly landing in the rental pool (liv.rent), and some in-progress condo projects are being switched to purpose-built rental to avoid holding costs (CMHC).

2. The 8,000 still under construction. Every one of those unsold units that completes without a buyer is a likely rental listing.

3. Short-term rentals returning. B.C. says active short-term listings fell from about 28,000 to just over 23,000 after its restrictions, pushing units back into long-term rental (liv.rent).

s the rental market about to flood?

It's already filling fast. Metro Vancouver's purpose-built vacancy rate hit 3.7% in 2025, a full point above the previous record, and asking rents have fallen year over year for 30 straight months, to about one-fifth below their September 2023 peak (Rennie; liv.rent).

New rental supply is arriving from four directions at once:

1. Record purpose-built completions. Nearly 11,000 purpose-built rentals completed in Demand moved the other way. B.C.'s population shrank in 2025 as non-permanent residents left, and Rennie notes those departing were overwhelmingly renters.

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The declines are steepest in exactly the suburban markets where small-unit towers are concentrated. CMHC also reports landlords are offering incentives such as move-in credits, free parking and in some cases several months of free rent.

The landlord squeeze, in numbers

A typical new suburban one-bedroom bought with 20% down today runs about $1,300 a month short of covering its costs. This is an illustration, not a real property — every number below is an assumption you should replace with your own.

Rent figure from liv.rent's August 2026 report; mortgage is our calculation with Canadian semi-annual compounding.

One honest caveat. About $1,000 of that mortgage payment is principal in year one, so part of the shortfall is building equity rather than disappearing. But that's cold comfort when values are also falling: Rennie forecast a further 4% condo price decline in 2026 (Rennie). A landlord who bought a presale at the 2022 peak, closed at today's values, and is now renewing at a higher rate after the Bank of Canada's October 28 hike is squeezed from every side.

Tailspin, or a split market?

Our honest read: a tailspin is a real risk for one segment of landlords — not for rental property as a whole.

How the tailspin would work. Negative cash flow forces leveraged owners to cut rents to stay leased. That's already happening: individual condo owners kept vacancy at 1.5% in 2025, versus 3.7% for purpose-built buildings, largely because they can't afford an empty month (Daily Hive). Lower rents mean lower investor values, more owners decide to sell, more listings push prices down further, and presale buyers closing into that market face bigger appraisal gaps.

Who is most exposed. Owners of studios and small one-bedrooms in suburban towers, bought near the 2022 peak, with high leverage and a mortgage renewing in the next 12–24 months. They compete directly with brand-new rental towers offering free months and amenities.

Why we don't think it spreads to everyone.

• The supply wave has an end date. CMHC expects most of what's under construction to reach the market in the next 12–18 months, and warns that slowing condo starts could later shrink the flow of new rental competition (liv.rent).

• Rents may be finding a floor. Metro Vancouver one-bedroom asking rents rose 0.45% from July to August 2026, and the year-over-year decline narrowed from 6.4% to 4.9% (same source).

• No forced-selling wave yet. Total resale listings in Greater Vancouver were actually down 4.3% year over year in October 2026 (GVR).

• Family-sized rentals are holding up, as the three-bedroom numbers above show.

The same mismatch that left condos unsold is splitting the rental market. Units designed for people to live in long term are weathering this. Units designed for investors are taking the hit.

What it means for our clients

Moving up from a condo. Your sale competes with developer inventory, so price to today's resale comps. The purchase side is in your favour: the gap between the benchmark apartment and detached home in Greater Vancouver narrowed from $1,197,500 to $1,101,800 over the past year — about $95,700 (our calculation from GVR benchmarks). If your condo is a larger, well-laid-out unit, lead with that — it's exactly what end users can't find in new product.

Downsizing from a house. You're the buyer the market was built without, which gives you leverage. Look hard at larger older resale units alongside new ones, negotiate incentives on finished new product rather than buying on paper, and ask how many units the developer still owns before you buy into a building.

Owning rental property. Know which side of the split you're on. For a small suburban unit: stress-test your renewal at today's rates, price to the market rather than to last year's rent, and weigh the cost of a vacancy against keeping a reliable tenant. If the numbers only work on a rent recovery, it's worth a hold-or-sell conversation now rather than after renewal. For a family-sized unit in a good location, the outlook is steadier — focus on keeping good tenants.

This is general information, not financial advice — bring your numbers to your accountant and mortgage professional.

What we're watching

• Unit mix in the next launches. When concrete towers start selling again, does the plan book shift toward two- and three-bedroom homes? That's the signal developers have heard the market.

• CMHC's fall Rental Market Report. It will show whether 2026 vacancy rose above 3.7%, and by unit size.

• Purpose-built completions in MLA Canada's monthly reports, and whether more unsold condo projects convert to rental.

• The Bank of Canada on December 9, and what the new provincial government does on housing — including the federal-provincial condo conversion plan announced in June, whose future we haven't seen confirmed.

The bottom line

The 14,000 unsold condos aren't proof that Metro Vancouver built too much. They're proof that much of it was built for the wrong buyer. The families and empty nesters who make up real, lasting demand are still here — they just need homes designed for them. And until the rental wave passes, the owners of investor-style units will feel this most.

If you want to know where your home or rental property sits in this split market, call us. That's the conversation we have every day.

Greater Vancouver's housing market continues to favour buyers, but we're beginning to see some encouraging signs beneath the surface.

Our November Market Pulse registered 24 out of 100, firmly within buyer-advantage territory. The latest reading reflects October's housing market activity, which remained subdued despite an increase in the number of properties available to buyers.

October's sales were 22.5% below the 10-year seasonal average, while the sales-to-active listings ratio stood at just 13.4%. The composite benchmark price declined another 0.7% month over month and was 5.2% lower than a year earlier.

These numbers confirm that buyers remain in a strong negotiating position. However, the statistics don't tell the entire story.

Buyers Are Coming Back to Open Houses

One of the more interesting developments we've noticed recently is a change in buyer activity.

"We've seen a meaningful increase in traffic at our open houses. It seems buyers are definitely out looking again, but they're not quite ready to pull the trigger. There's interest, but there's still a lot of hesitation."

— Brad Gannon

This is an important distinction.

Buyers haven't necessarily disappeared. Many are watching the market closely, comparing properties, and waiting for something to give them the confidence to make a purchase.

That hesitation is understandable. Prices have declined, borrowing costs remain significant, and economic uncertainty continues to weigh on consumer confidence.

But it also raises an interesting question: What happens when those buyers decide it's time to act?

Could the U.S. Midterm Elections Change the Outlook?

Another development we're watching closely is the political shift following the U.S. midterm elections.

Democratic gains could influence financial markets, particularly if investors begin reassessing expectations for trade policy, tariffs, government spending, and economic growth.

Changes in U.S. bond yields can influence Canadian borrowing costs, while shifts in trade policy and economic confidence can affect how Canadians feel about making major financial commitments.

Of course, political developments don't translate directly into lower mortgage rates or stronger housing demand. Much will depend on how financial markets interpret the election results and what policies ultimately follow.

Still, sentiment can change surprisingly quickly.

After an extended period of uncertainty, even a modest improvement in confidence could encourage some buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines to move forward.

Not Every Segment Is Experiencing the Same Market

It's also important to remember that Greater Vancouver isn't one uniform housing market.

Detached homes, townhouses, and condominiums continue to experience different levels of demand.

For families hoping to move from a condo into a townhouse or detached home, today's market may offer opportunities that were difficult to find during the more competitive years.

Condo buyers, meanwhile, generally have more selection and greater negotiating leverage, although well-priced and desirable properties can still attract considerable interest.

The key is understanding the individual neighbourhood and property type rather than relying entirely on regional averages.

Foreclosure Watch: 236 Active Listings

We're also introducing a new feature to our monthly Market Pulse: Foreclosure Watch.

Our November snapshot identified 236 active court-ordered listings across the Greater Vancouver region.

We'll be tracking this figure in future months to help identify whether financial stress among property owners is increasing or decreasing.

The number itself doesn't establish a trend. We'll need several months of consistent tracking before drawing meaningful conclusions.

Could This Become a Missed Opportunity?

There's an old pattern in real estate: buyers often feel most confident when prices are rising and competition is intense. Ironically, they're frequently most hesitant when prices are lower and negotiating conditions are more favourable.

We aren't calling the bottom of the market. Prices could decline further, and economic uncertainty remains significant.

But we do believe today's conditions deserve serious consideration from buyers who are financially prepared and planning to own their homes for the longer term.

The risk isn't simply buying too early. It's also waiting so long for certainty that the opportunity has already passed.

For some buyers, this may ultimately prove to be one of those classic missed opportunities.

And based on what we're seeing at our open houses, there are plenty of people watching closely to see what happens next.

Brad & Theo Gannon | Oakwyn Realty

Why this matters right now

If you're 55 or older and own your home in Metro Vancouver, you've probably used BC's Property Tax Deferment Program, or at least thought about it. It's one of the quiet tools that lets many of my empty-nester clients stay in their homes longer.

The program got noticeably more expensive this year. Then, in the past two weeks, two more things happened: the Bank of Canada raised interest rates, and BC elected a new government that has promised to undo the 2026 changes. Here's what that means for you, in plain English.

How deferral works

Deferral is a loan from the province that covers your annual property taxes. You make no monthly payments. The balance and interest are usually repaid when the home sells.

For the regular program, you generally need to:

• Be 55 or older this year, a surviving spouse, or a person with a designated disability

• Live in the home as your principal residence (not a cabin or rental)

• Keep at least 25% equity: your mortgage and other charges plus the deferral can't exceed 75% of your BC Assessment value

• Be up to date on past property taxes and utility fees

It costs $60 to apply and $10 a year to renew. Both fees are added to your balance.

What changed in 2026

Starting with 2026 taxes, the province charges a much higher rate on new deferrals, and the interest now compounds monthly. Anything you deferred for 2025 or earlier keeps the old terms, so you don't have to pay those balances off.

Here's what that difference adds up to. The BC Seniors Advocate, using Ministry of Finance data, looked at a homeowner who defers a typical $3,800 tax bill every year for 10 years. Under the old terms, that adds up to just over $5,000 in interest. Under the new terms, it's just over $17,000, which works out to about $1,200 more per year.

Where the rate hike and the new government fit in

The rate hike. On October 28, the Bank of Canada raised its key rate by a quarter point, to 2.5%. The banks moved prime up to match. The rate on 2026-and-later deferrals is reset four times a year, on January 1, April 1, July 1 and October 1. Today's 6.45% runs until December 31. If prime holds at its new level, the January 1 reset will likely land about a quarter point higher. The Bank also said it may need to raise rates again.

Balances from 2025 and earlier are reset only twice a year. Their next change is April 1, 2027.

The new government. The BC Conservatives won the October 24 election. During the campaign, they promised to reverse the 2026 deferral changes. So far, they haven't said when that would happen, or whether anyone would get back the higher interest already charged on 2026 deferrals. Until a new law passes, the current rules apply.

Your three options

1. Keep deferring. It's still a reasonable tool if cash flow is tight, and the Seniors Advocate still encourages seniors who are struggling to consider it. According to the Advocate, about 80% of seniors who defer repay within roughly 10 years, usually when they sell. Just keep an eye on what's building up: your annual statement arrives by early May.

2. Pay your taxes going forward. This stops new borrowing at the higher rate. Your older balances keep their low rate. If you're on automatic renewal, check the opt-out deadline with the province before your next tax bill.

3. Right-size. If deferral is what makes the house affordable, it's fair to ask whether the house still fits your life. Selling repays the balance and frees up your equity for a home that suits your next chapter.

Whichever way you lean, talk it over with your accountant or financial advisor first.

Thinking about your next move?

I work with empty nesters and downsizers from the North Shore to Burnaby, helping them figure out whether staying or moving makes more sense. If you'd like a clear picture, book a no-pressure right-size consultation. We'll go over what your home could net today and what your options look like. [Book a consultation →]

For questions about deferral itself, call the province at 1-888-355-2700 or the Office of the Seniors Advocate at 1-877-952-3181.

— Theo