October 2026 Market Pulse | 16/100 — Extreme territory

Our October Market Pulse has fallen another three points, from 19 in September to 16 out of 100, pushing the Greater Vancouver housing market further into Deep Buyer Advantage territory.

The September data behind the October reading remains decidedly soft. The sales-to-active listings ratio fell to 10.9%, sales finished 25% below the 10-year seasonal average, and the composite benchmark price declined another 0.6% month-over-month. At the same time, buyers are still contending with mortgage rates that haven't fallen nearly as quickly as many people expected.

Put those ingredients together — sticky rates, abundant inventory, weak consumer sentiment and cautious buyers — and sellers are competing for a relatively small pool of serious purchasers.

But there's another side to this market.

We think the next few months could represent an unusually good buying opportunity — particularly for buyers with stable finances who are planning to own for the medium to long term.

Rates Have Come Down — But They Still Feel High

One of the biggest impediments to a stronger housing recovery continues to be borrowing costs.

Our September month-end reading for a competitive five-year fixed mortgage was approximately 4.34%. That's certainly an improvement from the peak-rate environment, but it isn't low enough to suddenly restore the purchasing power buyers enjoyed several years ago.

And psychologically, rates remain a problem.

Many buyers spent the last year expecting substantially cheaper mortgages to arrive. When rates don't decline as quickly as anticipated, there is a natural inclination to wait another few months but there’s little to suggest they will drop quickly.  Although we don’t see a lot of room for the Canadian economy to support hikes either.

Waiting to buy when rates drop could be a risky move. Lower rates would improve affordability — but lower rates could also bring considerably more buyers back into the market.

Condo Sales Remain a Particular Weak Spot

The weakness isn't evenly distributed throughout the market.

We're finding that condos — particularly older, smaller or poorly designed units — are under considerably more pressure than good family-oriented homes in constrained segments of the market.

With so much choice available, buyers don't have to compromise nearly as much as they did when inventory was scarce.

A condo can look competitive based on its price and square footage on paper, but once buyers walk through it, the details suddenly matter.

As Brad puts it:

“Poor design and livability of micro-sized condos has finally caught up with developers. With so much inventory, buyers are noticing the size of closets or the lack of storage and moving on quickly to better choices and better design.”

That is an important change.

During a strong seller's market, buyers often tolerated tiny bedrooms, virtually nonexistent storage, awkward floorplans and living rooms designed around maximizing the number of units a developer could fit into a building.

In today's market, they don't have to.

“I really hope one positive of this downturn is a return to practical design and sensible living spaces that acknowledge people need room for a home office — and somewhere to put their bikes and skis.” — Brad

For developers, we think there's a message here. Livability is becoming a competitive advantage again.

Consumer Sentiment May Be the Biggest Issue

The numbers tell us the market is weak. But our conversations with buyers tell us something else: confidence is weak too.

There are still buyers looking at properties. Open houses aren't universally empty, and well-priced, desirable homes can absolutely generate offers.

But buyers generally don't feel much urgency.

Theo describes what we're seeing this way:

“There are still buyers around, but demand remains too muted to prop up certain segments of the market. When buyers have this much choice, they can afford to be patient.”

That distinction matters.

A market doesn't necessarily need a dramatic economic event to decline. If sellers need to sell while a large percentage of potential buyers simply decide they can wait, the balance gradually shifts.

Our 10.9% sales-to-active listings ratio captures that imbalance quite well.

Foreclosures Are Worth Watching

We're also beginning to track court-ordered listings separately as a market-stress indicator.

Our latest count is approximately 232 active court-ordered listings within GVR. We're not currently including foreclosures in the Market Pulse calculation because we want more historical data before changing the methodology, but the trend deserves attention.

Foreclosures remain a relatively small portion of the overall Vancouver market. We don't see evidence of anything resembling a widespread distressed-sale environment.

Nevertheless, rising court-ordered inventory alongside elevated overall inventory is another indication that financial pressure exists beneath the surface.

We'll continue tracking this monthly.

Why We Think This Could Be a Rare Buying Opportunity

A Market Pulse reading of 16/100 isn't a prediction that prices are about to rebound.

It tells us that current conditions are unusually favourable to buyers.

Those aren't the same thing.

Prices could certainly soften further. Mortgage rates could remain elevated. Economic uncertainty could persist. Anyone purchasing today needs to be financially comfortable with those possibilities.

But there's a paradox in real estate markets: the easiest time psychologically to buy is rarely the best time financially.

When everyone feels confident, sales are rising and the headlines are positive, buyers generally have competition.

Today we're seeing almost the opposite.

There is substantial inventory. Sellers are negotiating. Buyers have time to perform due diligence. Conditional offers are possible. And weaknesses that would have been overlooked in a hot market can now result in meaningful price adjustments.

For buyers who have been waiting for leverage, this is what leverage looks like.

We believe the next several months could represent the kind of buying window that only appears once a decade or so.

That doesn't mean every property is a bargain.

In fact, selectivity is probably more important today than ever.

The opportunity is to use the weakness in the overall market to purchase the right property — good location, functional floorplan, sensible size and long-term livability — without having to make the compromises buyers routinely made during Vancouver's strongest markets.

Burnaby's new-build multiplex market is a buyer's market: 94 homes for sale against about 7 sales a month, or 14 to 19 months of inventory.

Market snapshot

Sales by month

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Sales ran near the average most of the year and hit 10 in both May and July. They fell to 5 in August, just as 28 new listings arrived, and September had no firm sales as of September 30.

By price range

The $1.75M–$2M range is the most balanced; homes over $2.25M have about two years of supply.

Only four homes sold for under $1.2 million all year ($1,095,000 to $1,160,000). The lowest-priced active listing is $1,299,000.

By area

North Burnaby commands the highest price per square foot; East Burnaby has the most supply relative to sales.

By size

Smaller homes sell for far more per square foot, and the larger homes on the market now have been listed longest (median 58 days for 3,000+ sq. ft. versus 21 days under 2,000).

By quarter

Sale price vs. asking price

The median home sold for 96.6% of its final asking price, and the gap has widened since spring.

Only 3 of the 40 sold at or above asking. Based on sales up to about $1.96 million; asking price is the final list price, so earlier price reductions are not included.

About this data

• Source: MLS® data from Greater Vancouver REALTORS®, compiled by Brad & Theo Gannon.

• New construction (built 2024–2026) half-duplex, triplex and fourplex homes in Burnaby with three or more bedrooms.

• Active listings as of September 30, 2026. Sales from October 2025 to September 2026; sale months are estimated from list date plus days on market.

• Figures are medians unless noted. Price per square foot uses total floor area as reported on MLS®. Months of inventory = active listings ÷ average monthly sales.

• Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

The Foreign Buyer Ban Is Ending. Will Vancouver Home Prices Actually Care?

Canada's federal foreign-buyer ban is currently scheduled to expire on January 1, 2027.

If you've been following the Vancouver real estate market, you've probably already heard some version of the prediction:

Foreign buyers are coming back.

And with that comes the hope—particularly among some homeowners and sellers—that their return could provide the spark that finally gets Vancouver's housing market moving again.

We're not convinced.

Theo comments "I've been asked a lot lately about the end of the ban. It really seems like a lot of sellers and homeowners are hoping it marks a dramatic turnaround. I'm sorry to say, it seems like wishful thinking to me."

We think the expiry of the federal ban could turn out to be surprisingly close to a non-event for Vancouver resale prices.

Here's why.

Remember what happened in 2016?

There is no question that foreign buyers were once a significant presence in Vancouver real estate.

When B.C. first began collecting citizenship data in 2016, foreign purchasers were involved in 13.2% of Metro Vancouver residential property transfers between June 10 and August 1.

That's a big number.

It was even more dramatic in some individual municipalities.

And just before B.C.'s original 15% foreign-buyer tax came into effect on August 2, foreign purchasers rushed to complete transactions. On July 29 alone, more than 55% of Metro Vancouver transactions registered that day involved a foreign national.

So yes, foreign money was unquestionably a factor in the extraordinary Vancouver market of that era.

But there's another side to those numbers.

After the tax came into effect, foreign purchasers were involved in only 1.3% of Metro Vancouver transactions from August 2 through September 30.

That's an enormous change.

Foreign purchasing eventually recovered somewhat, but it never returned to anything resembling that frantic pre-tax period.

And Vancouver real estate continued to rise, fall and cycle anyway.

That's worth thinking about.

Were foreign buyers really the long-term driver?

This is where we think the conversation gets more complicated.

Brad’s take is quite skeptical: "A closer look at the data really makes me question whether foreign buyers themselves have been a long-term driver of our local market. Money from offshore? Absolutely. But a lot of that money can ultimately become Canadian capital through residents, families, corporations and other ownership structures rendering a foreign buyer ban or tax ineffective. I think that’s exactly whats happened.  The ban was a bit of a non event when introduced and I think the same will transpire when it’s lifted. A rebound from the market extremes we’re experiencing is likely soon but I doubt it will be sparked by the ban lift.”

That's an important distinction.

A "foreign buyer" is a legal classification. Foreign capital is an economic concept.

They're not necessarily the same thing.

B.C. itself eventually recognized the difficulty of understanding beneficial ownership and introduced considerably more transparency around corporations, trusts and partnerships owning real estate.

Statistics Canada data also put the scale into perspective. By 2020, non-residents owned approximately 4.2% of residential properties in the Vancouver CMA.

That isn't insignificant.

But it's difficult to reconcile that number with the idea that foreign ownership alone has been the dominant force determining the long-term direction of Vancouver housing prices.

Our market is much bigger and more complicated than that.

And 2027 isn't 2016

This may be the most overlooked part of the discussion.

People imagining a flood of foreign buyers returning to Vancouver are often implicitly imagining the foreign-buying boom of a decade ago.

But the economic backdrop has changed dramatically.

China is particularly important because Chinese capital played such a prominent role in the Vancouver real estate discussion during that period.

China's housing market today looks nothing like it did during the boom years.

As of August 2026, Chinese new-home prices were still falling nationally, down approximately 3% from a year earlier.

The broader numbers are even more striking.

Through the first eight months of 2026, China's real estate development investment was down 19.9% year-over-year. Residential sales area was down 13%, while new residential construction starts were down more than 25%.

The Chinese government has just introduced additional measures aimed at supporting its struggling property market.

Why does that matter in Vancouver?

Because rising real estate values in China helped create enormous household wealth during the previous cycle. Some of that wealth was diversified into overseas assets—including Vancouver real estate.

Today, that wealth effect is considerably different.

There is still enormous private wealth in China, and substantial Chinese capital continues to move offshore.

But removing a Canadian regulation doesn't automatically recreate the economic environment of 2015 or 2016.

Opening the door doesn't necessarily mean thousands of buyers are standing on the other side waiting to walk through it.

There's still a 20% tax

This might be the simplest reason of all to temper expectations.

The federal ban and B.C.'s foreign-buyer tax are two completely different policies.

If the federal prohibition expires as currently scheduled, B.C.'s 20% Additional Property Transfer Tax doesn't disappear with it.

Consider a foreign national purchasing a $2 million Vancouver home.

That's potentially an additional:

$400,000 in provincial tax.

Before regular property transfer tax.

That is a very substantial financial deterrent.

So January 1, 2027 doesn't simply return Vancouver to the conditions that existed before the original foreign-buyer tax was introduced in 2016.

Not even close.

The bigger forces are much closer to home

This is ultimately why we're skeptical that ending the ban will dramatically change Vancouver housing prices.

Every day we're talking with buyers trying to make these decisions.

The conversations aren't primarily about the foreign-buyer ban.

They're about whether a family can afford the jump from a condo to a townhouse.

They're about mortgage payments.

They're about whether someone should buy now or wait another six months.

They're about job security, interest rates, negotiating power and whether prices have further to fall.

They're about confidence.

Those factors affect an enormous percentage of potential buyers.

And that's why we think they matter much more to the direction of Vancouver housing than whether one relatively small category of purchasers becomes eligible to buy again.

So will the end of the ban have no effect?

We wouldn't go that far.

Certain segments could see more activity.

Luxury properties could be more sensitive to foreign demand. And new construction may be another area worth watching, particularly if Ottawa eventually designs rules intended to direct foreign investment toward creating additional housing supply.

There is also clearly still substantial wealth overseas looking for places to invest.

But that's very different from expecting the end of the federal ban to suddenly rescue the Vancouver resale market.

For that to happen, foreign purchasing would have to return at a scale large enough to materially change the balance between buyers and available inventory.

We haven't seen convincing evidence yet that this is likely.

Our take

Foreign capital has unquestionably played a role in Vancouver real estate.

Foreign buyers have unquestionably played a role too.

But those two things shouldn't automatically be treated as interchangeable.

And the extraordinary foreign-buying environment Vancouver experienced around 2016 occurred under very different economic, regulatory and global conditions.

So if you're a homeowner waiting for January 1 and expecting the return of foreign buyers to suddenly push Vancouver prices dramatically higher, we'd be cautious about building your plans around that assumption.

The foreign-buyer ban may be ending.

The much bigger question is whether Vancouver home prices will even notice.

— Brad & Theo

The September B&T Market Pulse registered 19 out of 100, placing Metro Vancouver in the Extreme Buyer Advantage zone. Based on August data, the sales-to-active listings ratio fell to 12.3%, sales were 20.7% below the 10-year seasonal average, and the composite benchmark price declined 5.6% year over year and 0.6% month over month.

On the surface, these numbers paint a fairly clear picture: the market cooled through the summer, buyers have more selection, and prices remain under pressure. But the market we are experiencing day to day is more nuanced than the headline numbers suggest.

Offers are still being written

Although the overall market slowed, we received offers on many of our listings over the past several weeks. Some of those offers were simply too low for our sellers to accept, which is not surprising in a market where buyers know they have leverage. Other offers were reasonable enough to bring the buyer and seller together, and those properties sold.

That is an important distinction. A buyer’s market does not mean that nothing is selling. It means buyers can generally be more selective, take more time and negotiate more aggressively. Sellers may need to be flexible, but they do not necessarily have to accept every low offer that comes along.

Pricing remains critical. A property that is priced slightly above where buyers see value can receive very little attention, while a well-priced home in good condition can still attract strong activity. Buyers are looking carefully at every detail and comparing each new listing with everything else available.

Larger townhomes are telling a different story

We have also seen our buyers encounter multiple offers on several larger townhomes that came onto the market. This may seem surprising when the overall Market Pulse is sitting at 19, but it shows why broad market statistics do not tell the whole story.

Many families in Burnaby and Vancouver want more space but cannot—or do not want to—make the jump to a detached house. A larger townhome can offer the bedrooms, storage and usable living space they need at a price that remains below most detached homes.

The problem is that townhomes in the 1,600-to-2,200-square-foot range are relatively elusive in both Burnaby and Vancouver. When one of these homes comes onto the market with a functional layout, good location and reasonable asking price, buyers take notice. Even in a generally slow market, several families may end up competing for the same property.

This reinforces something we regularly tell our clients: there is no single Vancouver real estate market. A small older condo, a typical two-bedroom townhome and a rare 2,000-square-foot family townhome can all behave very differently during the same week.

Why this fall could be an excellent buying opportunity

We are cautious about declaring that the market has reached its absolute bottom. Prices are still drifting lower, sales remain below normal, and the September Pulse shows that momentum weakened over the summer.

At the same time, we believe this fall could be an excellent buying opportunity for people who are financially prepared and planning to own for the longer term. Buyers currently have more inventory to choose from, less competition across much of the market and greater ability to negotiate on price, dates and conditions.

The Market Pulse has also moved into such extreme territory that the possibility of a future rebound should be considered. Waiting for the market bottom to become obvious usually means waiting until buyer confidence and competition have already started to return.

For families looking to upsize, the current market may be especially useful. The value of a condo or smaller townhome may have declined, but the more expensive property they want to purchase may also have corrected. In some situations, that can reduce the dollar gap between the current home and the next one.

The opportunity is property-specific

This is not a market where buyers should assume every property will be heavily discounted. The best opportunities are likely to be listings that have been on the market for a while, properties that need some updating, or situations where the seller has a genuine reason to make a deal.

At the same time, buyers searching for scarce family-oriented homes—particularly larger townhomes—need to be ready to act when the right one appears. A weak overall market does not prevent competition for a rare and desirable property.

Our September Market Pulse confirms that buyers have substantial leverage, but our recent experience shows that serious buyers have not disappeared. They are watching closely, making offers and competing when a home provides the space, condition and value they are looking for.

The fall market could provide some of the strongest buying conditions we have seen in years. The key is understanding which properties offer room to negotiate—and which ones are scarce enough that waiting may mean losing the opportunity.